Impact of Climate Variability on Maize Production: In Siha District, Tanzania

Nzaro, William Raymond (2020) Impact of Climate Variability on Maize Production: In Siha District, Tanzania. Masters thesis, The Open University of Tanzania.

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Abstract

Climate variability has a large effect on the agriculture sector and, consequently on ma-ize production for residents of Siha District and other regions of Tanzania. A descriptive concurrent mixed method to gather data relating to the effects of climate variability on maize production was used. For primary data a sample of 92 respondents was selected through probability and non probability techniques, 92 respondents filled the question-naire which was validated through an expert in the Meteorological station and agricul-ture sector. For time series analysis a sample of 30 years (1988-2018) was selected. The reliability test yielded the Cronbach’s Alpha of above 0.7 meaning the questionnaire was reliable for data collection. Data were analyzed through descriptive and inferential statis-tics to determine the impact of climate variability on maize production in Siha District in Tanzania. The study further examined the impact of future climate variability scenarios to see how maize production in the sub humid and semi-arid areas will respond to cli-mate variability by assessing the effects of climate variability on maize production. Based on the results, it can be concluded that temperature has significantly increased over the years and that rainfall has significantly reduced. Increases in temperature could shorten the length of the growing season with temperature variation expected to have significant impacts on the agro ecological zones. Climate variability effects on maize production resulted to severe and prolonged droughts, floods and changes to growing seasons that have significant effects for soil productivity, water supply, food security and in turn human welfare as well as harmful on land resources and, otherwise, can lead to irreversible impacts on biological diversity. Just as agricultural productivity gains have always been closely linked to poverty reduction, productivity decline in tropical and subtropical agriculture that will result from climate change can be expected to in-crease the depth and severity of poverty. To mitigate climate variability and provide ef-fective adaptation measures, it is important for the government, research units, and pri-vate sectors to invest resources in training farmers and supporting them against further adverse climatic conditions.

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